You’re interested in playing college baseball, but what are your chances of making it to the next level? While many tout national probability as gospel, it turns out your odds of playing at the next level vary greatly depending on where you live.
If you live in Arizona and are wondering what percentage of high school graduates from your state play at each college level and where they are playing, you’ve come to the right place. In this article, we team up with our friends at College Baseball Insights to provide you with state-level overview of your chances to play at the next level.
You can see an overview of our resources, methodology, and limitations on our College Baseball Participation Overview Main Page, as well find overviews on other states and regions.
Arizona by the Numbers
In the table below, you’ll see how many high school players from Arizona are playing at each level of college baseball, the probability of playing at each college level, and how Arizona compares nationally and to other states in the Southwest Region. You can see the complete Southwest breakdown HERE.
Where Are They Playing?
Arizona Players by Division (979)
Image and data credit: College Baseball Insights
The Breakdown
It may surprise you to find out that Arizona has the 2nd lowest high school baseball participants of any state in the region, ahead of only New Mexico. That doesn’t stop Arizona from being the lone bright spot and clear leader of the Southwest in moving players to the college ranks. Arizona’s 12.6% overall college baseball participation rate is just about even with the national average of 12.58%, but sets the pace in the Southwest by over 2.5 percentage points. Arizona’s strongest pipeline to the next level comes at the JUCO level, where the state has a 4.66% participation rate (1st in the region). The Grand Canyon State also has a strong pipeline to the NAIA, with a 2.39% participation rate (1st in region). The state’s D1 participation rate of 2.33% is also ahead of both the national (2.32%) and regional (1.75%) averages and is also tops in the Southwest. At the D2 level, Arizona (1.79%) is above the regional mark (1.64%) but below the national average (2.05%). The D3 level is where Arizona is the worst (1.38%) at sending players to the next level. Thats good enough for 3rd in the region.
Arizona is a professional baseball Mecca, but that same success doesn’t extend to moving high school players to the college game. Despite leading the Southwest, Arizona is very average when compared to the other 49 states. This is likely due to poor in-state options for players. There are 3 D1, 5 NAIA, and 14 JUCO programs in-state. There are no D2 or D3 options.
Want to see additional states and regional breakdowns? Find them HERE.
Limitations
This article was written with data and insights from 3rd party sources, College Baseball Insights and NFHS High School Participation Data. Data and insights are subject to revision and/or change. We’ve attempted to display as accurate a picture as possible with the information that is available. Readers should be aware that college baseball roster data is fluid and changes throughout the year. Every attempt is made to reconcile data and keep up with changes, but this article may not reflect the changes or updates from 3rd parties. Insights cannot account for gap year programs, misreported roster information, or other inaccuracies which may slightly alter the numbers and percentages used in this article. Insights are subject to change and are based on best available information.
